Arthur Hayes explains the impact of interest rate cuts: the yen against the US dollar exchange rate is key, and the market may plummet after the interest rate cut
Arthur Hayes, Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, stated at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, may collapse within a few days after the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea
Arthur Hayes explained in an interview with CoinDesk during the Token2049 conference that the upcoming interest rate cut will exacerbate inflation issues and lead to a strengthening of the Japanese yen (JPY), thereby triggering widespread risk aversion sentiment.
Cutting interest rates is a bad idea because inflation still exists in the United States, and the government is the main driver of price pressure. If borrowing costs are reduced, this will exacerbate inflation. The second reason is that cutting interest rates will narrow the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan, which could lead to a sharp appreciation of the yen and trigger the end of yen arbitrage trading
The market had already felt the destructive impact of the strengthening of the yen and the subsequent lifting of yen arbitrage trading in early August this year, when the Bank of Japan raised its benchmark lending rate from 0 to 0.25%. Bitcoin fell from approximately $64000 to $50000 within a week.
Arthur Hayes emphasized that the short-term "USD/JPY exchange rate" is the only important indicator.
Most analysts expect the Bank of Japan to further raise interest rates in the coming months, while the Federal Reserve will take the opposite path (cutting interest rates). This policy divergence means that the yen may further strengthen, forcing investors to liquidate risky assets financed by yen denominated loans.
Arthur Hayes predicts that US interest rates will fall from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5% to near zero levels.
The initial market reaction will be negative, and the central bank's response will be to further cut interest rates to contain the crisis. So I think cutting interest rates is a bad idea, but they will still do it and it will soon drop to zero
Does Ethereum have a chance to reverse its decline?
Approaching zero interest rates means that investors may once again seek other profit opportunities, thereby bringing renewed attention to areas in the cryptocurrency market that can generate returns, such as Ethereum, Ethena's USDe, and Pendle's Bitcoin staking.
Ethereum (ETH) currently offers an annualized 4% staking yield, which will benefit in an ultra-low interest rate environment. Ethena's USDe uses Bitcoin and Ethereum as supporting assets, combined with equivalent perpetual futures short positions to generate returns, while decentralized financial platform Pendle's Bitcoin staking offered floating returns of up to 45% last week, all of which will benefit from the low interest rate environment. At the same time, the market demand for token treasury bond and other products affected by interest rates may weaken.
(责任编辑:黄金TD)
-
本文由@佳人如梦原创发布于人人都是产品经理。...[详细]
-
10月31日广发恒益一年持有期混合A净值增长0.34%,近3个月累计上涨3.18%
你们谁解其中味? 马云,中国的首富,对你来说钱只是一个数字,而对我们这些商家来说,钱特么是一切。...[详细]
-
不是因为我们企业大了,人才多了,而是知道了什么战略。...[详细]
-
餐饮众筹失败的原因在于: 餐饮众筹周期长,需要长期持续经营 和实物众筹完全不同,实物众筹最后的结果是,给参与者兑现一款产品、一本书或者一款包,只要拿到产品,众筹就算结束。...[详细]
-
Bitwise:GENIUS 法案影响堪比 BTC 现货 ETF
因为家用PC机的性能普遍满足不了VR的要求,所以VR设备无法更好的适配这些机器,不能作为PC机外设来使用。...[详细]
-
Wintermute在24小时内从Coinbase成功提取了总计1,713枚BTC,其中包括最近的115枚BTC的提取
还记得电影《搜索》吗?网络暴力对于一个人的伤害是无法估计的。...[详细]
-
2018年公积金贷款需要担保人吗?我想申请公积金贷款,不知道要不要这个。
跟着马云干,要么盆满钵满,要么倾家荡产。...[详细]
-
无法更深层次地解决用户问题的先天不足,注定让这种产品形态被人们所抛弃。...[详细]
-
正当毕胜艰难地与供应商一家一家死磕时,2009年9月,美国华人小伙谢家华创办的网上鞋店Zappos被亚马逊以8.47亿美元收购,一时引起热议。...[详细]
-
如此搏命,让她花了不到2年时间就赚到了2万美元,这也成为了她日后发家的资本。...[详细]